San Francisco Real Estate: Mid-2026 vs. Mid-2025

San Francisco’s real estate market is experiencing a massive inventory squeeze in mid-2026, with active single-family home listings dropping nearly 45% (to just 216 homes) and active condo listings falling roughly 38% compared to this time last year. This severe supply shortage, coupled with an influx of tech wealth from the local AI boom, has driven the median single-family home price up 22.56% to a record $2,200,000, while median condo prices have edged up 3.17% to $1,332,500. Properties are moving faster than they did last year with a median of just 14 days on the market, and single-family homes are routinely trading at an intense over-asking premium of 125% as buyers aggressively compete for a heavily restricted selection of listings. 

This competitive surge marks the latest phase of a turbulent five-year cycle that began with pandemic-era highs in 2021 and early 2022, when rock-bottom interest rates drove home prices to historic peaks. The market then faced a sharp correction through late 2022 and 2023 as aggressive Federal Reserve rate hikes chilled buyer purchasing power, followed by a stabilizing plateau in 2024 as buyers adjusted to the reality of interest rates hovering near 6.5%. By 2025, substantial stock market gains and hiring in the AI tech sector began translating directly back into high-end real estate purchases. This set the stage for the current mid-2026 market, where a persistent "lock-in" effect keeps existing homeowners from giving up their low mortgage rates, leaving the city in a severe inventory deadlock that heavily favors sellers.